Ninjas Breed Ninjas

If you have ever been ninja’ed from, you probably know the feeling of injustice, that your effort was exploited by someone, who just stuck their long fingers past you grabbing the shinies.

Well, prepare. Cause more are coming!

I’ve subjectively noticed an incline in ninja looting in heroics, especially on the last boss. They will wait for everyone else to just leave the dungeon before pressing need to collect the goodies, without the hassle of actually being called out on it. Often ninja looters benefit from the rush storm heroics are these days, pressing need on everything that drops.

No one cares enough to make a deal about it, thus rendering it easy and without consequence to ninja. This also means the underdog undergeared player who actually needs these items, will probably find themself in a headwind battle alone, where no one else has time for principles.

The higher the chance of a ninja in the group, the more reason to ninja yourself, or press need. I’m sure you can see where this is going (= the wrong way). So what are we going to do about it?

To make things straight: A ninja is someone who purposefully gains ownership of an item, avoiding fair distrubution, like skipping the queue, although it really is closer to theft.

Ninja’ing is well known in multiplayer games, it is considered cheating and loot systems do not completely prevent this, they can always be worked around. Here’s an example of a ninja at work:

Items that get ninjaed a lot:

• Trinkets – like Deathbringer’s Will that drops in Icecrown Citadel
• Mounts – like the Grand Black War Mammoth which drops in Vault of Archavon
• Tier tokens in general

- e.g. items that have greater value, than the risk and damage of being named and shamed. That’s why heroic ninja’ing is barely regarded as such. The stolen item needs to be of high value (to everyone) in order to get people angry about it.

Bad conscience is easily kept at bay if you feel like you really deserved it, and also if you feel this upgrade was bigger to you, than any of the others.

Although, if it turns out you can not use the item anyways, you might then feel bad about it, and end up apologizing on wowconfessions.com, although not for the act of ninja’ing in the first place. Whether this guy could use the trinket Deathbringer’s Will or not, he’s still a ninja, rather in this case, a ninja with no gain.

We can look at ninja’ing in the view of Game Theory. This can teach us in what way this system works and how we should deal with it. Here’s a small introduction to what I’m on about:

“Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, or games, in which an individual’s success in making choices depends on the choices of others.” (from Wiki).

We can set up the loot scenario in a simple scheme like the one below. Imagine it is a heroic dungeon, and players can either choose to greed in case someone actually needs the item (wanting to equip it, rather than sell it), or need regardless. In this scenario, neither you nor the other player really needs the item as an upgrade.

We can see two states of equilibrium here (like a state of balance and equal chance) which is when both greed. But there is only one Nash Equilibrium (a state where it doesn’t pay off to change strategy) which is when both need.

From this matrix, it looks pretty obvious to me, that needing is by far the best option – you will either win or have equal chance, but never risk just giving up any loot, it can’t go bad! Well how come we greed at all then, when it doesn’t pay off?

Because we trust people. We trust them enough so that one day, when we actually do need something, they will greed, and we will be able to rightfully need it and use it, instead of the 7 gold it can be vendored for… or more with the 2 hour duration trade option BoP items have now (Vault of Archavon is infamous for this happening).

But as the matrix showed, trust is easily lost, as the only stable situation, where no one can get tricked, is when everyone needs. Like just having one big button saying “LOOT”.

The thing is, the second you start employing the ninja strategy, you become one yourself, and the more ninjas around, the more in does not pay off to play nicely. Ninjas are like a chaotic force knocking the valuable balance out in favour of personal greed.

But, if we turn back to Game Theory, there is a strategy that is more beneficial and will earn you more in the long run, than purely needing. It requires for the game to be iterated, meaning repeatedly played, with the same players, to work  (this is one of the reasons why heroics are the perfect playground for a ninja, the anonymity of the cross server grouping means the players barely get to meet again). However, if we count on using an addon that can blacklist players – this is what you need to do, it’s called Tit for Tat and has four principles:

Be Nice

The most important condition is that the strategy must be “nice”, that is, you will not need unless someone else does. Basically this means that you trust people at first meeting.

Be Retaliating

Being a blind optimist doesn’t work either, if someone needs on you, you list their name and retaliate. This means, if you meet this player again, you adopt their play style and need as well, resetting the chance of loot.

Be Forgiving

You don’t want to perpetuate the ninja cycle either. If you meet a player who previously needed, which meant you needed as well, and they greed you this time, you greed also. You basically “forgive” them and treat them as trustworthy in the future, unless of course they need again. This stops long runs of revenge and counter-revenge.

Be Non-envious

The last quality is being non-envious, that is not striving to score more than the others in the group or raid. Sometimes you gain less in a specific run, in order to get the loot you really need another time.

Update 1st of November 2010

I’m not surprised that threads regarding this issue, emerges on the WoW forums at this point: Abusive use of the need button, Increased Ninja-ing.

I also realised that putting someone on ignore prevents you from being grouped with them again in the Random Dungeon Finder. This means the Tit for Tat strategy will not work using the ignore button, as the game is not iterated and the ninjas never get a hard time from you again.

I can’t help but think that the way Blizzard delt with this, was an short fix solution. Of course it is beneficial to you, you will not have to deal with negative people once more. But at the same time, it relieves the burden of consequence to the ninjas – there is no karma. The game is repeated from scratch over and over, and ninjas never get pointed out repeatedly, because the players who dislike them enough to ignore them, will never meet them again. The saying “what goes around comes around” I believe, lost it’s meaning in the Random Dungeon Finder.

Memories of a Noob – and the Power of the Wand

I used to be a noob – a real noob. Infact, whenever there’s an expansion out, I have to work hard to crawl up again out of the most obvious state of noobness. As time passes, I have learned to disguise it though.

Part of ascending from noobhood, is being able to recognise all the times in the past when noob was your middle name.

My first noob mistake was with my very first character back in Vanilla 2006, which was a warrior. I specced her protection and thought this would help me die less.

Later I made a druid on a PvP realm, specced her balance, geared her with agility and always ended up healing in Warsong Gulch. Needless to say my druid and me didn’t do a very good job at anything.

Then came my rogue. I played her right up to the release of the Burning Crusade. Mostly I did Warsing Gulch at low levels. I was proud of this character and thought I was really cool. She was mildly twinked and I therefore did well in battlegrounds. I liked the speed of daggers and thought combat was a brilliant tree to choose, improved sinister strike and all that. I’m thankful that inspecting someone didn’t let you view their spec back then, or it would have been evident to everyone how clueless I was.

Worse was that I believed defence rating was a useful stat for me in PvP, resulting in what people would call a ninja in Blackrock Depths for this trinket. The paladin that was tanking got upset and I repeatedly stated that this trinket was good for especially combat rogues, the trinket description even mentions being “struck in combat” – it doesn’t get more obvious than that, now does it?

I still remember the paladins name, and years later when I took up my rogue again, I found the trinket and shamefully sold it, followed by an immediate respec.

Truthfully, I changed main by leveling my night elf priest in secrecy, as to shed myself of the noob haze that I saw clouding my name. Sadly the noob is in the player and not the character, so the destiny of my priest was in the cards.

I managed to avoid the “wand spec” back then and I was invited to a small guild, whose members were mostly level 70 but only doing heroics. When they had enough members, we would raid Karazhan. I remember being very proud of this raid offer, but I had really no clue to what raiding really meant.

Being stupidly poor, I didn’t want to spend gold on mana potions and found what I thought was a clever way to preserve my mana – wanding! When the tank told us to let him get aggro first, I wanded. In fact I wanded a lot in Karazhan to the point I should probably have put those 5 points in it!

During the mana extensive fight against Nightbane , I wanded so much my damage done fell below the tank. Remember tanks did less overall damage in the Burning Crusade, than they do now, so I must have done like nothing. I was afterwards carefully approached by the tank, with the notion my dps was too low, and that I needed to push more. This concept was new to me, I was just cruising up till now, and how did he know I did less damage than him?! I was utterly confused that my actions were being monitored, then embarrased in front of the rest of the raid, to whom the woosh of the wand shooting must have been so telling. I honestly didn’t consider that wanding wasn’t feasible in a raid.

Later a friend told me his other friend wouldn’t invite him to do Gruul’s Lair until he had geared up more. I was appalled and told him I thought this friend was snobbish, this was his best friend IRL and he treated him like this? He then informed me of how every bit of damage mattered, and that if you’re undergeared for a certain encounter, the team has to compensate – or just wipe, it’s about math in the end. This conversation made me realise that raiding is not just about friendship but also about climbing a gear ladder and enhancing with gems and enchants.

I’ve learned the raid ethos now, I understand what is expected of me, but Cataclysm still scares me. The fact I will have to study my classes over again and incorporate new ways of playing makes me feel incompetent already, and we’re still in the Lich King expansion.

Okay – I only play two classes at max level, priest and shaman, but that just doubles the chance that I’ll be a noob again!

Cataclysm: The Coming of Multiple Mains

How do you imagine your playing experience in Cataclysm will be?

In the expansion, we are going to see big changes to more than just Azeroth. Structural changes will most likely make a shift in how we, the players, play the game.

There are a few changes that I see coming, that will also change how we play WoW in Cataclysm:

Dusting Off the Alt

The shared raid lockouts, and a diminished need to grind daily dungeons etc. to keep your character competitive, is gonna be a natural hault to the raider who used to do it all. Question is, what are people gonna do when there’s less options to grind?

• One option is playing less! I definately think this is part of the purpose. Not to overall force you play less, but instead if you wanted to, you would not be terribly behind the gear curve. In order to remove the stress factor of having to raid through a lot of content each week, you can play one character, utilizing less time, and still keep up with others. This is probably where casuals will find themselves. (On the guild management blog Cold Comfort the author expands on this idea in the post Blizzard Wants You to Play Less, All the Time).
  

• The other option is to have several mains, probably around 2-3. As it is, having alts is very common, and I know plenty of people with alts as geared as most mains. They can still have that, but so can the rest of us!

I’m welcoming the prospect of being able to develop two characters at the same time. Imagine if people really embraced this opportunity, and took a second main, perhaps some would play a role completely different from the one they’re used to – maybe we would see more experienced players, with more insight into the various encounters and playstyles, than we see now (perhaps I’m dreaming).

It also looks like Blizzard is bridging yet another gap for casuals. I’m very much in favor of that, seeing it’s casuals that make the Azerothian world and Blizzard’s economy go around.

The Grass is Greener Where the Loot is Closer

I think we are very likely to see guilds with two mains in order to get a better matchup when setting up 10 mans and 25 mans.

I’m guessing that 25 mans will still be the place of progression for the top tier raiders, but only because they will be able to gear up quicker, as 25 mans will reward 50% more loot per player, and naturally they will get further faster.

At the same time, I think 10 mans will finally get the recognition they deserve. In the beginning of the expansion “Wrath of the Lich King”, Naxxramas was the entry raid after doing heroics, but the 25 man version was somewhat easier than the 10 man. In Icecrown, it’s the other way around. The key is balance, and that on the other hand isn’t easy.

The second 10 mans are easier, people will do that. And the second 25 mans are easier, people will do that. It’s all about getting gear fast.

Peer to Peer Recruitment

However, I am suspecting and hoping a fair amount of guilds would convert to a smaller sized raid model, that doesn’t require the logistics 25 man does. If this becomes the norm, perhaps we’ll even see an end to extensive raid applications (oh I pray!). If a raid group in total is mostly consisting of 20 players, and then casuals on the side, that raid group could easily bundle up 3 full 10 man groups a week, given the prediction that people will run parallel mains, holds water. You need a much smaller base of players to run top tier content, than the current model enables you to.

With raiding teams that small, perhaps you don’t need to apply and go through a 2-4 week trial program any longer. Perhaps guilds will hand pick willing and able raiders instead. Closer relations between players could be prioritized higher, as in a group of 10, each member is more visible, than in a group of 25, where it’s easier to overlook someone slightly annoying. I’m suspecting that this, along with the guild reputation system, will underline the focus from Blizzard’s side, to enhance guild loyalty and membership experience.